Mediated by Qatar and Turkey, the negotiations followed an earlier round in Doha that produced a temporary ceasefire on October 19, after a week of clashes that killed dozens on both sides.

Citing officials, Al Jazeera reported further attempts to avert open conflict are likely, but analysts warn that mistrust between Islamabad and Kabul remains entrenched.

Pakistani security sources said Monday’s session ran nearly 18 hours but accused the Afghan delegation of reversing its stance on Islamabad’s key demand — that Kabul act against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). One official told Al Jazeera that “instructions received from Kabul” were complicating the talks.

Afghan officials, in turn, accused Pakistan of “lacking coordination” and “failing to present clear arguments,” local media reported.

The Afghan side is led by Haji Najib, deputy interior minister for administrative affairs. Pakistan has not disclosed the members of its delegation.

Cross-border skirmishes in recent weeks have killed and wounded soldiers and civilians in both countries.

US President Donald Trump, speaking at the ASEAN summit in Malaysia, said he could “solve the Afghanistan-Pakistan crisis very quickly,” inserting himself into the dispute.

Baqir Sajjad Syed, a former Wilson Center fellow, said a long-term settlement appears unlikely given “profound mutual distrust and conflicting priorities.” He added that the Taliban’s reliance on the TTP for internal security complicates any break from the group.

A Fraught Relationship

Pakistan once served as a main backer of the Afghan Taliban and welcomed their return to power in 2021, but ties have since deteriorated over the TTP issue.

Formed in 2007, the TTP has waged an insurgency against Pakistan, demanding prisoner releases and opposing the merger of the former tribal areas into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

Islamabad accuses Kabul of sheltering the TTP, the Balochistan Liberation Army, and Daesh's (ISIL or ISIS) Khorasan branch — allegations the Taliban reject. Kabul maintains that Pakistan’s security problems are domestic.

Afghan Defense Minister Mullah Yaqoob, who signed the Doha ceasefire with Pakistan’s Khawaja Asif, said in an October 19 interview that “terrorism” is often used as a political label. “There is no universal or clear definition of terrorism,” he said.

Regional powers including Iran, Russia, China and Central Asian states have urged the Taliban to rein in groups based in Afghanistan — an appeal renewed at talks in Moscow earlier this month.

Rising Toll and Growing Strain

Recent attacks have killed more than two dozen Pakistani soldiers, while the country recorded over 2,500 casualties in 2024 — its deadliest year in nearly a decade.

According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, the TTP carried out at least 600 attacks or clashes with security forces in the past year, with activity in 2025 already surpassing last year’s total.

Security analyst Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud said Pakistan must recognize that the Taliban’s ties to the TTP are ideological, not transactional. Journalist Sami Yousafzai agreed, saying that the Taliban’s history of loyalty to allies makes compromise unlikely.

“The Afghan Taliban are war veterans; they can withstand military pressure,” Yousafzai said.

Diplomacy Falters

China, along with Qatar and Turkey, has been mediating, but analysts warn Pakistan may soon resort to unilateral military action.

Defense Minister Khawaja Asif recently hinted at “open war,” which observers say could lead to airstrikes or cross-border operations.

Syed said mediators might attempt another diplomatic round or shift the talks’ venue. He added that economic incentives could help sustain a truce, as seen in other recent US-brokered ceasefires.

Unintended Consequences

Analysts caution that military action could strengthen the Taliban’s domestic support. Yousafzai said Taliban retaliation against Pakistani strikes was popular inside Afghanistan and that further bombing could deepen anti-Pakistan sentiment.

“If Haibatullah Akhunzada issues an edict declaring Jihad against Pakistan, many young Afghans could join the Taliban,” Yousafzai warned. “Even if it causes greater Afghan losses, the outcome would be disastrous for Pakistan.”

He added that the only clear beneficiary of escalating hostilities would be the TTP, which would feel emboldened to intensify attacks against Pakistan’s military.