Le Pen's Chances of Winning Presidency Slim: French Analyst

“I will not even speculate on what Marine Le Pen's policies may be as her chances of winning the presidency are extremely slim, if non-existent. Clearly though, she would lead France out of the Eurozone, of the EU and close borders, imposing protectionism and strict anti-immigration policies,” Vincent Michelot, a Professor of American Politics at Sciences Po Lyon University, told the Tasnim news agency.

Following is the text of the interview.

Tasnim: French presidential candidate for the Front National (FN) party Marine Le Pen and the En Marche! Movement’s hopeful Emmanuel Macron are campaigning for the weekend's election run-off. Representatives from the country’s two major parties, namely the Socialist Party and the Republicans failed to get enough votes in the first round of voting. What is your take on this?

Michelot: The situation of each one of the two traditional "government parties" is very different: the Socialist nominee, Benoit Hamon, was the candidate of a party which has governed France for the last 5 years and is so unpopular that the incumbent president, François Hollande, did not even run again, for fear of a total humiliation, possibly as early as the primaries of the left. Also Hamon was incapable during his campaign of bringing together the 2 wings of the party, the pragmatists and the "rebels". His voter base was thus shrunk on the left by Jean-Luc Mélanchon and on the right by Emmanuel Macron. As for François Fillon, his absence from the second round is entirely due to the legal troubles he got into after it was revealed that he had employed both his wife and two of his children as parliamentary assistants for jobs the reality of which is still under investigation. Had François Fillon not been  embroiled in such legal difficulties, he would be in the runoff and clearly the favorite.

Tasnim: Do you believe that France’s domestic policy will change under Le Pen or Macron?

Michelot: I will not even speculate on what Marine Le Pen's policies may be as her chances of winning the presidency are extremely slim, if non-existent. Clearly, though, she would lead France out of the Eurozone, of the EU and close borders, imposing protectionism and strict anti-immigration policies. As for Emmanuel Macron, he is unabashedly pro-European and wants to embrace European integration as a protection rather than a threat. He is close to "Third Way" Social-Democrats and leans on the side of opening and deregulating the French labor market. But he also balances his economic agenda with a strong defense of the French social and welfare model.

Tasnim: What kind of policy the two may adopt towards the EU if elected?

Michelot: Marine Le Pen would certainly operate a rapprochement with Russia but she has been practically mute on the question of foreign policy during her campaign, sticking to "France First" positions and trade protectionism. Her message is also infused with strong language on Islam and terror, which are often connected in her vocabulary. Emmanuel Macron's foreign policy would be decidedly more pro-European than his predecessor's but in as far as the position of France towards NATO or the Arab world one can expect a lot of continuity from the present government.

The En Marche! Movement was only founded last year and has never competed in any election.