While the crude prices are 7% higher now than at the end of 2023, they are down nearly 20% from September's highs.
Prices "have risen only that far because of widespread expectations that the global supply-demand balance for crude oil will loosen in 2024," said Kentaro Matsuda of the Japan Research Institute.
Iran produced 2.99 million barrels of oil daily (bpd) last year (2023), 440,000 barrels more than in 2022, according to the International Energy Agency, which predicts a further increase of 160,000 barrels in 2024, Nikkei Asia reported.
This increase is expected to contribute to a less tight market, alongside increases by the US and Brazil.
The IEA sees global supply rising by 1.5 million barrels per day to an all-time high this year. The Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security forecasts the supply-demand balance flipping from a shortfall of 110,000 barrels per day last year to a 600,000-barrel surplus in 2024, the report added.