Trump this week implemented 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada. While Canadian crude secured an exemption with a 10% levy, Mexican crude now faces the full 25% tax.
Last year, Pemex exported 806,000 barrels per day (bpd), with 57% of shipments directed to the United States. However, in January, exports plummeted 44% year-on-year to 532,404 bpd, the lowest level in decades.
While Mexico already exports crude to Europe and Asia, particularly India and South Korea, the US remains its primary market for the flagship heavy sour Maya crude.
A Mexican government official, speaking anonymously due to commercial sensitivity, confirmed Pemex is in discussions with potential new buyers outside the US
"The good thing is that there's appetite for Mexican crude in Europe, in India, in Asia," the official stated. "There's demand for heavy crude and Pemex crude."
The official noted that Chinese buyers have shown "very interested" in initial talks. "Demand will decide how these flows are redirected," they added.
Two sources at PMI Comercio Internacional, Pemex’s trading arm, told Reuters that China, India, South Korea, and even Japan could serve as alternative markets, despite the higher shipping costs.
One of the traders emphasized that "only Asia" has the necessary refinery capacity to process the type of crude Pemex exports.
Neither Pemex nor its trading arm immediately responded to requests for comment.
Speculation has arisen over whether Pemex, the world's most indebted energy company, might offer discounts to retain US buyers.
However, the government official categorically denied such concessions, confirming that once current contracts with US clients expire this month, vessels will likely shift to Asia and Europe.
The two trading sources confirmed that Pemex has no plans to apply price discounts to remain competitive despite the tariffs.
Mexico remains a major oil producer, but its aging oil fields—primarily in the Gulf of Mexico—have seen output fall to a four-decade low.
Meanwhile, Mexico's refining system struggles, and delays at the new 340,000 bpd Olmeca refinery in Dos Bocas have forced the country to export crude while importing gasoline and diesel, largely from the US
Without significant investment in exploration and production, Mexico may ultimately be forced to import crude in the coming decade to sustain expanded refining capacity, a once unthinkable reversal.