Children Born Today Face Drastically Higher Risk of Climate Extremes, Study Warns
TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Children born in 2020s will experience two to seven times more extreme climate events than those born in 1960, with the poorest suffering the most, according to new research published in Nature.
Children born today are set to endure an unprecedented rise in climate-related disasters, researchers have found.
A new study published May 7 in the journal Nature projects that under current global policies, which may lead to a 2.7°C (4.9°F) temperature rise by 2100, exposure to extreme events such as heatwaves, floods, droughts, wildfires, cyclones and crop failures will multiply significantly.
The data shows that children born in 2020 are between two and seven times more likely to experience one-in-10,000-year climate events than those born in 1960.
If global temperatures climb by 3.5°C (6.5°F) by 2100, 92% of today’s five-year-olds will face deadly heatwaves, 29% will experience crop failures, and 14% will encounter major floods.
By comparison, only 16% of those born in 1960 were exposed to extreme heat during their lifetime.
"By stabilizing our climate around 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures, about half of today's young people will be exposed to an unprecedented number of heatwaves in their lifetime," said study lead author Luke Grant, a physical scientist at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis.
"Under a 3.5°C scenario, over 90% will endure such exposure throughout their lives," he added.
The same generational disparity was found across other extreme events, though with varying levels of impact.
The findings were generated by combining climate model projections with global demographic and population data, enabling researchers to estimate generational exposure under different emissions scenarios.
Under the lowest warming scenario of 1.5°C, 52% of children born in 2020 will face unprecedented heat levels, compared to 16% of those born in 1960.
In the worst-case scenario of 3.5°C warming, the figure jumps to 92%.
Risk of crop failures, droughts, cyclones and wildfires also increases significantly, particularly for regions such as the United States, South America, Sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia.
Children in low-income regions, especially near the tropics, are expected to be hit hardest.
Currently, 92% of children born into low-income groups face lifetime exposure to climate extremes under present policy trajectories, compared to 79% of those from wealthier backgrounds.
"Living an unprecedented life means that without climate change, one would have less than a 1-in-10,000 chance of experiencing that many climate extremes across one's lifetime," Grant said.
The study did not account for climate change’s potential effects on migration, fertility, mortality, or conflict, meaning the full extent of the risk could be even greater.
In a commentary published alongside the study, Rosanna Gualdi and Raya Muttarak from the University of Bologna said the findings "reveal an alarming intergenerational gap" in climate exposure.
"If greenhouse gases continue to be emitted at current rates, global warming will intensify and today's children will be exposed to increasingly frequent and severe climate-related hazards," they wrote.
They emphasized the need for emissions reductions and equity in the transition to net-zero to address intergenerational inequality.
"Neglecting it jeopardizes the future of our children," they concluded.
