According to these computations, the group's projected expansion, involving the addition of six new members, will grant it dominion over nearly half of the world's oil reserves and production.
Currently comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, BRICS announced at the Johannesburg summit that Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates will officially join in January 2024.
With the inclusion of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran, the group will significantly increase its weight in the oil market. Together with current members Russia and Brazil, these nations collectively control 39% of the world's total oil exports, equivalent to 17.1 million barrels per day (bpd). After expansion, the 11 nations in BRICS will account for approximately 47.6% of the world's total oil production, according to the data.
Regarding oil reserves, BRICS will also possess nearly half of the world's total, amounting to 719.5 billion barrels out of 1.6 trillion. If Venezuela, which has applied for membership, is accepted, the group's control will increase to around 65.4%. In comparison, the G7 leading economies (the US, UK, Germany, Italy, Canada, France, and Japan) control only 3.9% of known crude reserves.
Analysts anticipate that BRICS expansion to include Persian Gulf countries will likely diminish US influence in the global oil market.
"Saudi Arabia and the UAE joining is... extremely significant. The United States used to rely on the [Persian] Gulf monarchies, especially Saudi Arabia, to exert control over the oil price. With their accession to BRICS, it seems likely that America has lost any control it had over oil prices for the foreseeable future," stated Irish economist Philip Pilkington in an article for the British portal UnHerd.
Pilkington also noted that this week's BRICS Summit signifies the end of Iran's economic isolation, given Iran's status as the world's eighth-largest oil producer with the third-largest proven oil reserves.