Donald Trump Poised to Beat Joe Biden in 6 Key Battleground States: Poll

Donald Trump Poised to Beat Joe Biden in 6 Key Battleground States: Poll

TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Former US president Donald Trump would likely defeat President Joe Biden in six critical battleground states if the 2024 election were to occur now, new polling data released Friday shows.

Although the Republican and Democratic parties have yet to officially choose their presidential nominee, Biden and Trump have all but secured a rematch against each other after they both swept their early state primary contests. Trump is expected to officially be nominated at the GOP convention in July, as is Biden at the Democratic convention in August.

Biden managed to defeat Trump in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the 2020 election, while the former president carried North Carolina. Now, new polling from the Cook Political Report, GS Strategy Group (a Republican polling firm) and BSG (a Democratic polling firm) suggests the results could all but reverse in the expected November rematch, Newsweek reported.

Presidential elections are decided by the Electoral College, which awards each state a certain number of electoral votes, based on population. A presidential candidate needs to secure 270 electoral votes for victory, and winning the national popular vote does not guarantee success. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016, as did former President George W. Bush in 2000. With most states leaning solidly Republican or Democrat, the Electoral College gives just a few critical states outsized influence in deciding the ultimate winner.

Here's a closer look at the results of the latest Cook Political Report poll. The survey included 3,969 voters in the seven states, and it was conducted from May 6 to May 13.

When factoring in third-party contenders Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and Jill Stein, the results in Arizona show Trump with 41 percent support compared to Biden's 37 percent. Head-to-head, the Democratic incumbent was backed by 44 percent and his Republican challenger had the support of 45 percent of voters.

In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Arizona by less than 11,000 votes. The margin of victory was just 0.3 percent, 49.4 to 49.1 percent. The average by ABC News polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight has Trump leading by about 4.7 points, 42.7 percent to Biden's 38 percent as of Friday.

Trump leads Biden by 4 points with third-party candidates in the mix, 42 percent to 38 percent. Without the independents, Trump leads by 3 points, 47 percent to 44 percent.

Biden narrowly defeated Trump in Georgia, by less than 12,000 votes in 2020. The margin was 0.3 percent, with Biden at 49.5 percent and Trump at 49.2 percent. FiveThirtyEight's average currently has Trump backed by 43.9 percent of Georgians compared to Biden's support from 38.3 percent—a margin of 5.6 points in favor of the Republican.

Biden trails Trump by 3 points in Michigan when independent hopefuls are in the running. The Democrat is backed by 40 percent compared to the Republican's 43 percent. Head-to-head, Biden is down by 2 percent. Trump is backed by 47 percent and the Democratic incumbent has the support of 45 percent.

While Trump narrowly won Michigan in 2016, Biden carried the state by more than 150,000 votes in 2020. The Democrat had the backing of 50.6 percent of Michiganders while the Republican was supported by 47.8 percent. FiveThirtyEight's current average has Trump leading by less than one point, 41.5 percent to Biden's 40.6 percent.

The new polling suggests Trump could flip Nevada, which Democratic presidential candidates have won in every election since 2008. Trump has the backing of 43 percent of Nevadans and Biden has the support of 35 percent with the third-party candidates factored in. When it's just Trump and Biden, the Republican is at 49 percent compared to the Democrat's 40 percent.

Biden won Nevada with 50.1 percent compared to Trump's 47.7 percent in 2020. FiveThirtyEight currently shows the Republican with an average of 43.1 percent support and the Democrat with the backing of about 36.4 percent.

In North Carolina, Trump leads by 8 points with independent candidates in the race. Biden has the support of 36 percent of North Carolinians while Trump has the backing of 44 percent. Head-to-head, Trump leads by 7 points, 48 percent to 41 percent.

Trump defeated Biden in the Southeastern state in 2020 with 49.9 percent to 48.6 percent. The average on FiveThirtyEight shows Trump up by 6.3 points, 44.5 percent to Biden's 38.2 percent.

Trump is at 43 percent and Biden is at 40 percent when factoring in third-party contenders. When they face off against each other, the Republican still leads by 3 points, with the backing of 48 percent of Pennsylvanians compared to the Democrat's 45 percent.

In 2020, Biden won Pennsylvania with 50 percent of the vote compared to Trump's 48.8 percent. Four years earlier, in 2016, Trump carried the state with a narrow margin of 0.7 percent. As of Friday, the FiveThirtyEight average shows Trump up 2.1 percent, 43 percent to Biden's 40.9 percent.

In Wisconsin, Trump and Biden are tied. They are both at 41 percent with independent candidates in the contest, and at 45 percent head-to-head.

Trump carried the Midwestern state in 2016, but it flipped to Biden in 2020. The Democrat won 49.5 percent of the vote in the last election compared to the Republican's 48.8 percent. FiveThirtyEight's present average has Trump leading Biden by 1.6 percent, 42.3 percent to 40.6 percent.

While the polling results look bad for Biden, his campaign and his supporters say that things will change by Election Day. They say that Trump's legal troubles, in which the former president maintains his innocence, as well as concerns about abortion rights, will motivate voters to back Democrats in the election.

"Polls go up and down. You and I have been following politics for a long time. But the short answer is to begin to frame the choice for the American people, which is why it's very good news that the first debate is in June," Senator Chris Van Hollen, a Maryland Democrat, told ABC News host Martha Raddatz when pressed on Biden's poor polling performance during a Sunday interview.

Biden and Trump are slated to hold their first televised debate, aired by CNN, on June 27.

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