Geir Pedersen, the UN special envoy for Syria, told the Financial Times that Syria “risks turning into Libya” if promised reforms fail to materialize.
Pedersen said President Ahmed al-Sharaa “needs to do what I call a course correction.” He urged the leader to convince Syrians that the post-Assad era represents “a new beginning,” not “a new autocratic regime.”
Libya’s revolution, which also began during the 2011 Arab Spring, ended earlier after a NATO-backed intervention toppled and killed Muammar Gadhafi. The country has since remained divided between rival administrations controlling its east and west.
“The Syrian state never completely collapsed,” said Nanar Hawach, senior Syria analyst at the International Crisis Group. He noted that in December 2024, a coalition of militant groups led by al-Qaeda-affiliated Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s Ahmed al-Sharaa ousted Bashar Assad.
Hawach added that while Syria is divided into spheres of influence, “local and international actors continue to operate in relation to this single central government.”
He said no regional or international power—including Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, the United States, or the Persian Gulf states—wants a complete Syrian collapse that could destabilize the region.
Still, “the lack of trust and political common ground between al-Sharaa’s government and other Syrian communities is a serious issue,” said Kelly Campa, deputy Middle East team lead at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.
A skirmish between government forces and Kurdish fighters in Aleppo ended in a ceasefire hours before Pedersen’s comments were published.
The US-brokered truce has held, but tensions persist between the Kurdish minority in Syria’s northeast and the central government.
A March agreement between the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and al-Sharaa’s government aimed to integrate Kurdish institutions into state structures, but progress has stalled. One key obstacle is the incorporation of roughly 60,000 Kurdish fighters into the national army.
About 2.5 million Kurds were excluded from Syria’s first postwar parliamentary elections in October. Damascus cited security concerns but pledged to keep their seats vacant until voting can occur. The same applies to the Druze minority.
Integrating Kurdish regions—covering about 30% of Syria—would expand government control and grant access to oil and gas reserves critical for reconstruction. The World Bank estimates rebuilding costs between $400 billion and $1 trillion.
Relations with the Druze, Syria’s second-largest minority, have worsened following reports that government forces supported Arab Bedouin tribes in clashes in Suwayda.
Though troops withdrew in July, some Druze groups have since demanded autonomy.
“Druze militias in Suwayda have essentially established parallel administrative and security structures and absolutely oppose al-Sharaa and his government,” Campa said.
A 30-year-old Druze resident, Wiam, told DW that “the situation today feels as if we’re moving toward a new reality with more than one ‘Syria’ within Syria.”
At the UN General Assembly in September, al-Sharaa vowed to bring “anyone whose hands are tainted with the blood of Syrian people to justice.” He said Syria had authorized UN investigations into killings of Alawites, Christians, and Druze earlier this year.
He reaffirmed commitments to minority rights and an inclusive government. But observers said the new assembly remains less representative than expected, with a reduced female quota.
“Al-Sharaa appears to be prioritizing maintaining his own political coalition for now over making substantial reforms,” Campa said. “Doing so may hold his government together but does not address the deep mistrust between him and communities like the Druze.”
Campa said the government should “professionalize its security forces” to rebuild confidence among disaffected groups.
Despite the divisions, some Syrians remain hopeful. “No matter what temporary divisions or control issues parties may have, the people are ultimately one,” said Damascus resident Yasser al-Doumi. “Syrians abroad or at home talk about ‘our country,’ not ‘our regions.’”
He added, “This gives me hope that Syria will remain united.”