Each Confirmed Coronavirus Patient Infects 2 to 3 People: Scientists
TEHRAN (Tasnim) – British scientists have estimated that each person infected with the Wuhan coronavirus has gone on to infect two to three people.
"We estimate that, on average, each case infected 2.6 (uncertainty range: 1.5-3.5) other people up to January 18, 2020, based on an analysis combining our past estimates of the size of the outbreak in Wuhan with computational modeling of potential epidemic trajectories,” said the report.
“This implies that control measures need to block well over 60% of transmission to be effective in controlling the outbreak,” it added.
When it comes to outbreaks, scientists and public health experts are concerned with how quickly a disease can spread and its mortality rate, CNN reported.
But there is still a lot more to learn about the virus, and scientists have warned against alarmism.
“It is quite easy to get fixed on a particular number but such predicted numbers will vary considerably at this early stage in an epidemic,” Mike Turner, Director of Science, The Wellcome Trust, said in a statement.
“What is becoming clear from several sources though is that there is substantive human to human transmission and that there may well be a lot of people who become infected but have no symptoms or very mild symptoms so don’t need to seek medical attention,” he added.
“This makes it more difficult to put in place effective control measures. A lot of people are working furiously to try and control this epidemic.”
On Sunday, Chinese officials said people can spread the virus before they have symptoms.
